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This paper develops a New Keynesian model with a time-varying natural rate of interest (r-star) and a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate.The representative agent contemplates the possibility of an occasionally binding ZLB that is driven by switching between two local rational expectations equilibria, labeled the "targeted" and "deflation" solutions, respectively. economy experienced a massive expansion of credit, a slowdown in productivity growth, and a rapid increase in income inequality.We introduce a novel approach to studying heterogeneity in job finding rates by classifying the non-employed, the unemployed and those out of the labor force (OLF), according to their labor force status (LFS) histories using four-month panels in the CPS.

Crises are generally initiated by a moderate adverse shock that puts pressure on intermediaries’ balance sheets, triggering a creditor run, a contraction in new lending, and ultimately a deep and persistent recession.Analysis of the term structure of interest rates almost always takes a two-step approach.The disagreement is not caused by classification error but rather arises because self-reported durations reflect individuals’ in short-term jobs either temporarily suspending their search or continuing search while working.Recent employment breaks negative duration dependence in unemployment exits and the unemployed who report long durations after recent employment have similar job finding rates as those who report short durations.We show how the persistent nature of household debt shapes the answer to this question.

In environments where households repay mortgages gradually, surprise interest hikes only weakly influence household debt, and tend to increase debt-to-GDP in the short run while reducing it in the medium run.Interest rate rules with a positive weight on debt-to-GDP cause indeterminacy.Compared to inflation targeting, debt-to-GDP stabilization calls for a more expansionary policy when debt-to-GDP is high, so as to deflate the debt burden through inflation and output growth.This suggests that securitization in this market funds safe collateral.How should a central bank act to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio?Within this framework, crises are typically preceded by prolonged boom periods.